TIME-BASED CHANGE OF TOURISM REVENUES AND THE EFFECTS OF TURKISH LIRAS VALUE (2002 – 2020)

Abstract

In this study, considering the data accessibility, the relationship between the tourism revenues of Turkey and the value of the Turkish Lira between 2002-2020 has been evaluated. This evaluation has been handled in two ways. The first one includes a time dependent evaluation of the relationship between the exchange rate and tourism revenues, and the second one a brief review about the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic within this case. In this context, time series analyzes were carried out based on the secondary data published by the Turkish Statistical Institute and TÜRSAB (Turkey Travel Agencies Association) and the exchange rate data announced by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. While the secondary data were analyzed between the years of 2002 and 2020, the data of 2020 were evaluated by taking the current COVID-19 pandemic into consideration. The data obtained during the research show that the economic and statistical results between the years 2002-2019 were in accordance with the predictions. In addition to the time dependent increase, the depreciation of the Turkish Lira has been spotted to have a positive effect on tourism revenues. Due to the restriction of national and international mobility within the precautions of COVID-19 pandemic measures, Turkey's 2020 tourism revenues were recorded just for the first and third quarters. The measurement in this section is about the time-dependent increasing effect of incomes and the reducing effect of the epidemic, rather than the effect of the value of the Turkish lira against the U.S. Dollar.